Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts

Buffalo goes for its fifth consecutive win and fourth cover in five games after defeating Miami 30-27 in a thrilling contest on Sunday. Tyler Bass hit a 61-yard field goal to win it for the Bills, who got three TD passes from Josh Allen in the second half. The Bills allowed more than 20 points for the first time in four games, but the offense did just enough to pull out the victory. Indianapolis has lost two straight, and its past four games have gone UNDER after losing 21-13 at Minnesota. The Colts forced three turnovers and sacked Sam Darnold four times, but they still lost to the Vikings. The Colts totaled 227 yards of offense, and Joe Flacco was 16 of 27 for 179 yards with an interception. Indianapolis has averaged 16.3 points in its past three games, and Buffalo is getting healthier on defense. Take the Bills and the UNDER.

The Buffalo Bills have struggled a lot more than expected. They have some big wins, but for the most part, they have come against bad teams. Indianapolis is 5-5 and a win here could go a long way in determining their playoff future as the AFC is a log jam right now of playoff hopefuls. Carson Wentz has had a big season and has taken care of the ball with 17 TDs to just 3 INTs on the season. Indianapolis has played some very good teams, though, as they lost to the Rams by 3, the Titans by 3, and the Ravens by 6. The Bills have forced 21 turnovers in their last seven games, and the two losses were games in which they turned their opponent over just one time. Indianapolis has played two clean games in a row, and Wentz has just three picks all season. Indianapolis needs a win here to stay in touch for a playoff run, and an "A' game effort is likely. Make the play on Indianapolis.

Buffalo is the real deal this season as it finished 13-3 with an 11-5 ATS record. The Bills have won their last six straight games and it would have been 10 in a row if not for a Hail Mary loss at Arizona. Buffalo is #2 in the league in total yards of offense per game and #2 in points scored with 31.3 per game. The Bills didn't let up in the season finale putting up 56 points against a good Miami team and Josh Allen threw three touchdown passes and went 18 of 25 for 224 yards in playing just the first half. Allen has thrown for 4,544 yards and 37 TDs with only 10 interceptions with a 69.2-percent completion rate. The defense is #14 in yards allowed and it really has stepped up the second half of the season as its sack rate and QB hits have almost doubled. Indianapolis was fortunate to make it into the playoffs and ironically it was the Bills' win over the Dolphins that got them there. The Colts bounced back from a meltdown against Pittsburgh to defeat the hapless Jaguars 28-14 while not covering as a 15.5-point favorite. The Colts haven't gotten the money their last three games and they are 2-5 ATS their last seven playoff road contests and 4-10 ATS their last 14 versus AFC teams overall. Buffalo has covered eight in a row and it has gone UNDER four of its last five January games. The Colts are 13-6 UNDER as road underdogs. Play the Bills and the UNDER.

The Indianapolis Colts have nothing to prove in Preseason Week 1 and they aren't going to risk an injury to often-injured star QB Andrew Luck. Coach Frank Reich has already ruled Luck out for this game. The backups are one-dimensional Jacoby Brissett, Chad Kelly and Phillip Walker. In two road preseason games last year the defense allowed 21.5 points per game. They face a young Buffalo squad that is home and added a lot of talent, including WRs Cole Beasley and John Brown, center Mitch Morse, two-way TE Tyler Kroft and defensive tackle Ed Oliver with the ninth pick of the draft. The Bills had the No. 2 defense in efficiency last year, ranking #14 versus the run and second against the pass. Look for a big effort by the home team against the disinterested visitors. Play Buffalo.