Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions

Josh Allen became the first player in NFL history with three passing TDs and three rushing TDs in a game, but Buffalo still lost 44-42 to the Rams on Sunday while totaling 445 yards of offense. Now that explosive offense will face Detroit's depleted defensive corps, as the Lions have four linemen listed from questionable to out for this game. The Bills are on a 6-2 ATS run, and Detroit has not covered its past two games, which were squeakers against Chicago and Green Bay. Buffalo has won nine of 11 against NFC opponents and seven of 10 road games. The Bills have averaged 33.1 points over a seven-game span, and they are #2 in the NFL with a season-scoring average of 30.5 points. Buffalo is #9 in pass defense. Allen is one of the few quarterbacks with even a better year than his counterpart in this matchup, Jared Goff. Take the Bills.

Detroit loses much of its home-field advantage in its annual Thanksgiving Day game as Buffalo just played at Ford Field on Sunday and remained in Detroit to play this game while the Lions had to travel back from New York. The Bills bounced back from a two-game losing streak to defeat Cleveland 31-23 and they scored on all five of their second-half possessions. Josh Allen shook off an elbow injury to finish 18 of 27 for 197 yards with no interceptions and the vaunted Browns running game was held to 80 yards on 26 carries. Devin Singletary ran for 86 yards and a touchdown and James Cook rushed for 86 yards for the Bills. The Lions surprisingly have won three straight and for the first time in several years are in the playoff hunt on Thanksgiving, but that is mostly due to a lot of weak teams in the NFC this year. Buffalo is 14-6-2 ATS after scoring at least 30 points its previous game and the Bills are 6-1-1 ATS their past eight games versus teams with losing records. The Bills are 6-2 UNDER their past eight games overall and they have stayed UNDER five straight road contests. Detroit's defense has shown flashes of improvement recently in games against Green Bay and the Giants, but not enough to cover the number in this game. Buffalo is 5-0 UNDER following a win. Play the Bills and the UNDER.

Detroit has another new coach in Dan Campbell, and he has indicated he wants to establish a winning attitude immediately, even with an apparent rebuilding situation after the Lions traded QB Matt Stafford and lost WR Kenny Golladay to free agency. The Lions did have a good draft, including taking offensive tackle Penei Sewell, and signed some decent free agents on defense. Jared Goff is the new starting QB coming over from the Rams, who he led to a Super Bowl, and the backups are Tim Boyle and David Blough. Boyle led the NFL with a 112.9 passer rating in the 2019 preseason, completing nearly 60% of his passes with six touchdowns and no interceptions for Green Bay. Blough has played in six regular season games, mostly in 2019, when he completed 94 of 174 passes with four touchdowns. Buffalo had its best season in years and made it to the AFC Championship game last season and improved defensively in the 2021 draft. Backing up Josh Allen are Mitchell Trubisky, Jake Fromm, and Davis Webb. Trubisky, of course, has plenty of NFL experience as the former starter for Chicago. Fromm was a fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft and didn't play last year while Webb has bounced around with a few teams without playing in a regular season game. Detroit is learning new schemes with a new quarterback, but Campbell wants to make a good first impression. The Bills already know what they can do, and Allen likely won't play. Take the Lions on the moneyline and the UNDER.

This is a low NFL total between a pair of suspect defenses: Buffalo is #20 in the NFL in points allowed, the Lions are #19. Detroit has a capable QB in Matthew Stafford (18 TDs, 11 INTs) and they've looked for offensive balance under the new coaching staff. The Lions split backfield work between LeGarrette Blount, Zach Zenner and Theo Riddick during Sunday's win over the Cardinals, rushing for 122 yards. Detroit is 36-15-3 OVER the total after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game, plus 33-18 OVER away in non-conference tilts. They face an improving Buffalo offense that has scored 41, 24, 17 and 23 points the last four games, part of a 4-1 run OVER the total. The Bills are on a 20-7 run OVER the total at home, as well as 20-7 OVER on field-turf. Take the OVER.