Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Chargers

Banged-up Baltimore takes a 3,000-mile road trip following a three-game homestand. They come off a big win at home against a divisional rival and the Ravens are 1-8 ATS after a double-digit victory. They're also 6-15 ATS after a spread cover. Los Angeles has a losing record, though they're outscoring opponents by +21. The offense is 11th in the NFL in total yards behind standout QB Justin Herbert (19 TDs, 5 INTs), eighth in points scored (25.9 per game), and ninth on third down (43.17%), while the defense is eighth on third down (35.66%). The Chargers are 70-47 ATS on turf. NFL favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Ravens that outgain their opponents by 50+ yards per game are 89-44 ATS after getting 400+ total yards in the last three contests. Play Los Angeles.

The Los Angeles Chargers have won eight of their last nine games dating to last season and they pulled off a thrilling 47-42 victory against Cleveland in a game that saw one tie and eight lead changes, including four in the final 15 minutes. Justin Herbert had his 11th 300-yard game with 398 yards passing and four touchdowns. The Chargers also proved that they can win the close ones after struggling in that department the past few years. The Chargers had gone UNDER their first four games and Baltimore was on its way to an UNDER until Lamar Jackson took over and the Colts choked and the Ravens won 31-25 in overtime on Monday night. The Chargers are allowing 23.2 points per game compared to 23.4 for the Ravens. Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS its last six versus AFC teams and 35-15-4 ATS its past 54 games as a road underdog. Baltimore is 10-26-1 ATS its past 37 October games and the Chargers are 16-5 UNDER after allowing at least 150 rushing yards their previous game. Play the Chargers and the UNDER.

The Los Angeles Chargers are a remarkable 7-1 straight-up on the road, so this trip to the East Coast won't bother them and they want to atone for a 22-10 home loss to the Ravens a couple of weeks ago. That game was closer than the score indicated because Tavon Young picked up a fumble and ran 62 yards for a touchdown for the final score with 2:40 remaining in the game. Philip Rivers went 23-of-37 for 181 yards and was victimized by two interceptions. Ravens' rookie QB Lamar Jackson was 12-of-22 for 204 yards with a touchdown and he will start this week and now the Chargers will have experience on how to defend him. Jackson will be the first quarterback in NFL history to start a postseason game before turning 22-years-old and it will be a tall order for Jackson, who has thrown only six TD passes and three interceptions with a 58.2 percent completion rate. It's a stark contrast to Rivers, who is in his 15th season and has accumulated 4,308 passing yards on a 68.3 percent completion rate this season with 32 TD passes and 12 interceptions. Also, Rivers has an uncanny ability to rally his team from seemingly hopeless deficits as he did against Pittsburgh earlier this season. Chargers' running back Melvin Gordon is expected to play despite an ankle injury and he has rushed for 1,375 yards in 12 games. The first meeting went UNDER by 10.5 points and the Ravens have stayed UNDER their last five playoff home games. The Chargers are 20-8 UNDER their last 28 against AFC teams and 7-3 UNDER their last 10 overall and 5-1 UNDER their last six playoff contests.  Take the Chargers on the moneyline and also the UNDER.

The playoffs for both these teams seems out of reach already, as San Diego is 2-5 and Baltimore at 1-6 are both on three-game losing streaks. I think both of these teams have played tough early schedules, and the loser of this game, which will make it four straight is likely to go in the tank. The Ravens are 1-6, but all six loses were by one possession. The problem they face here is that Phillip Rivers is having a very good season, and the Ravens secondary is depleted and has already allowed three teams to pass for 350 yards or more. The Ravens are allowing 26.3 points per game on the season. It will be open season on the Ravens secondary as Rivers has thrown for 327 yards or more in each of his last four games. Both of these teams can throw the ball, and neither does a good job defending it, so I expect the ball to be in the air a lot, and the points coming at a furious pace. The difference is that Rivers has been consistent the entire season, while Flacco has been up and down, and is one of the reasons why the Ravens are 1-6. The Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 after allowing greater than 350 total yards their previous game, while the Ravens 2-11-1 ATS under the same terms. San Diego has played to an 18-7-1 mark to the OVER in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing home record, and four of the last five have topped the total in this series. Play San Diego and take the OVER.