Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

They are a pair of AFC North teams that were expected to be good but didn't play well in September. Baltimore plays its third road game in five contests. The defense is 19th on third down, while the secondary ranks 29th in yards allowed and 14th in pass completion percentage (64.19%). The Ravens are on a 29-20-1 run UNDER the total. Cincinnati can take advantage of that secondary with QB Joe Burrows (7 TDs, one INT, 70.9% completions) and WR Ja'Marr Chase on a passing attack that is sixth in the NFL in yards. The Bengals have won two of the last three meetings at home against Baltimore, losing a close one last year, 27-24, and winning 27-16 and 41-21 in 2021 and 2022. Back the home dog in a defensive duel. Take the Bengals + UNDER the total. 

Baltimore let one slip away on Sunday, blowing two 14-point leads in a 33-31 loss to Cleveland, dropping to 7-3 on the season. Now the Ravens are home favorites over Cincinnati, and they are 6-0-1 ATS after an ATS loss and 5-0-1 following any loss dating to last season. The Bengals are 1-5 ATS their past six against AFC opponents, and they come off a home loss to Houston where C.J. Stroud continued his spectacular rookie season, leading a game-winning drive against a Bengal defense that now has to face Lamar Jackson. Joe Burrow threw for 347 yards against the Texans but also was picked off twice. M&T Bank Stadium is a tough stop for visitors, especially at night, and Baltimore doesn't figure to lose two home games in five days. The Ravens won the first meeting this season, 27-24 in Week 2, and HC Harbaugh is 10-3 SU as a favorite of more than three points when looking for a season sweep vs. a division rival. Go with the Ravens on the moneyline - Max Play. 

Two outstanding defenses clash in a divisional rivalry. Baltimore's defense was Top 10 in yards and points allowed last season, as well as fourth on third down (36.04%). The Ravens opened this year with a 25-9 win over Houston allowing 268 total yards and just 3.1 yards per rush. They run a ball-control offense that chews up yards and the clock, ranking seventh in time of possession in 2022. The Ravens are on a 14-6 run UNDER the total, including 52-40 UNDER versus the AFC Central. Last year, Cincinnati was Top 10 in points and rushing yards allowed. The offense isn't in mid-season form, or even close, after losing the opener at Cleveland, 24-3, with an embarrassing 142 total yards. Cincinnati's defense has allowed an average of 16.6 points in its last nine home contests. The Bengals are on a 12-7-1 UNDER the total, 13-3 UNDER in September games, and 12-3 UNDER against the AFC. Take Baltimore/Cincinnati UNDER the total as a Max Play. 

It appears that Lamar Jackson will not be playing in this one, but there is a good chance that backup QB Tyler Huntley will see action. The Raven's offense has produced just 75 points in their last 6 games or 12.5ppg. The Bengal offense seemed to solve the Raven's defense scoring 27 points last week. It was the second most points the Ravens have given up since week 12, and the second most points they have given up since week 3. Baltimore moved the ball last week vs this Bengals team, as they gained 386 total yards on just 46 plays. They had 4 turnovers which killed a lot of scoring opportunities. Cincinnati is going to score in this game, and I think the Baltimore offense has proven they can move the ball against this mediocre Cincinnati defense. In the Zac Taylor era, the Bengals are 9-2 OVER at home following a game that sailed OVER the total. I like the OVER in this one.