Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

First-place Atlanta comes off victories over Tampa Bay and Dallas, winning six of eight. The defense last week held the Cowboys to 3-of-13 on third down. They've allowed an average of 22.3 points in their three road games. The Falcons are on 22-13 run UNDER the total. The New Orleans offense is 16th in total yards and 18th on third down (38.14%). The Saints have lost seven in a row, averaging 16.5 points. Take Atlanta/New Orleans UNDER the total.

A veteran New Orleans defense was strong last season, ranking 13th in yards allowed and eighth in points. They've been strong again, ranked fifth in the NFL in points given up (14.7 per game). In three games, no one has scored 20+ points on them. The Saints come off a 15-12 loss to the Eagles, on a 21-9 run UNDER the total. Atlanta's new-look offense with Kirk Cousins (4 TDs, 3 INTs) hasn't been lighting it up, ranked 20th in yards, 26th in points (16.3 per game), and 29th on third down (22.22%). All three of their games have sailed UNDER along with a 4-1 UNDER the total run at home. Take New Orleans/Atlanta UNDER the total.

Atlanta will clinch the NFC South with a win plus a Tampa Bay loss. New Orleans can clinch it with a win plus a Tampa Bay loss or a tie plus a Tampa Bay loss. The Saints can earn a playoff berth with a win plus a Seattle loss or tie plus a Green Bay loss or tie OR a tie plus Seattle and Green Bay both losing. So easy to say a lot of things in play in this one. Atlanta is in an unexpected spot as it has lost six of nine and still can win the division. New Orleans is 5-10-1 ATS this season and just 2-5 ATS at home and the Saints lost to the Falcons 24-15 on Nov. 26. The Falcons are No. 8 in the league with 130.1 rushing yards per game and the Saints are No. 21 allowing 122.5 yards on the ground. New Orleans took advantage of four turnovers by Tampa Bay and beat the Buccaneers 23-13 last week, but the Saints are 5-16 ATS following an ATS win and 1-6-1 ATS after a straight-up win. Also, the Saints are 3-9-1 ATS their past 13 games as favorites and 3-7-1 ATS their past 11 games versus NFC South teams. Atlanta will pull out all the stops as it wasn't supposed to be in this situation anyway. Take the Falcons as a Max Play.

New Orleans is 7-3 UNDER this season and Atlanta averages only 18.9 points and the Saints allow 19.8. The Falcons have stayed UNDER five of eight games and the Saints have gone UNDER seven in a row versus NFC South teams. Derek Carr appears to be out of concussion protocol and has practiced this week and Taylor Heinicke is still recovering from a hamstring injury and likely will be the backup to Desmond Ridder again whether he's healthy or not. Nothing has worked much for the Falcons, who have lost six of eight and three in a row. Atlanta is 35-16 UNDER its past 51 November games and 9-3 UNDER after an ATS loss. The Saints are 14-6 UNDER following an ATS loss and 13-3 UNDER after allowing more than 350 yards their previous game. New Orleans is 18-3 UNDER as a division road dog of fewer than seven points. Play the UNDER as a Max Play.