Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

A veteran New Orleans defense was strong last season, ranking 13th in yards allowed and eighth in points. They've been strong again, ranked fifth in the NFL in points given up (14.7 per game). In three games, no one has scored 20+ points on them. The Saints come off a 15-12 loss to the Eagles, on a 21-9 run UNDER the total. Atlanta's new-look offense with Kirk Cousins (4 TDs, 3 INTs) hasn't been lighting it up, ranked 20th in yards, 26th in points (16.3 per game), and 29th on third down (22.22%). All three of their games have sailed UNDER along with a 4-1 UNDER the total run at home. Take New Orleans/Atlanta UNDER the total.

Atlanta will clinch the NFC South with a win plus a Tampa Bay loss. New Orleans can clinch it with a win plus a Tampa Bay loss or a tie plus a Tampa Bay loss. The Saints can earn a playoff berth with a win plus a Seattle loss or tie plus a Green Bay loss or tie OR a tie plus Seattle and Green Bay both losing. So easy to say a lot of things in play in this one. Atlanta is in an unexpected spot as it has lost six of nine and still can win the division. New Orleans is 5-10-1 ATS this season and just 2-5 ATS at home and the Saints lost to the Falcons 24-15 on Nov. 26. The Falcons are No. 8 in the league with 130.1 rushing yards per game and the Saints are No. 21 allowing 122.5 yards on the ground. New Orleans took advantage of four turnovers by Tampa Bay and beat the Buccaneers 23-13 last week, but the Saints are 5-16 ATS following an ATS win and 1-6-1 ATS after a straight-up win. Also, the Saints are 3-9-1 ATS their past 13 games as favorites and 3-7-1 ATS their past 11 games versus NFC South teams. Atlanta will pull out all the stops as it wasn't supposed to be in this situation anyway. Take the Falcons as a Max Play.

New Orleans is 7-3 UNDER this season and Atlanta averages only 18.9 points and the Saints allow 19.8. The Falcons have stayed UNDER five of eight games and the Saints have gone UNDER seven in a row versus NFC South teams. Derek Carr appears to be out of concussion protocol and has practiced this week and Taylor Heinicke is still recovering from a hamstring injury and likely will be the backup to Desmond Ridder again whether he's healthy or not. Nothing has worked much for the Falcons, who have lost six of eight and three in a row. Atlanta is 35-16 UNDER its past 51 November games and 9-3 UNDER after an ATS loss. The Saints are 14-6 UNDER following an ATS loss and 13-3 UNDER after allowing more than 350 yards their previous game. New Orleans is 18-3 UNDER as a division road dog of fewer than seven points. Play the UNDER as a Max Play.

New Orleans has a new coach in Dennis Allen, the former Saints defensive coordinator, who went 8-28 in three seasons as coach of the Raiders. Jameis Winston is back after suffering a season-ending knee injury on Halloween, but this will be the first season since 2005 that the Saints will be without coach Sean Payton and future Hall-of-Famer Drew Brees. Also, the offensive line is a question mark after suffering numerous injuries last year and there is expected to be an early adjustment period replacing some players there. Atlanta will have a new QB after Matt Ryan went off to Indianapolis and rookie Desmond Ritter could possibly start sooner rather than later. If not, Marcus Mariota will get the call after serving as a backup to Derek Carr at Las Vegas. The teams split their two meetings last year with the Falcons winning outright 27-25 as a seven-point underdog and then losing the rematch on the final weekend of the season. New Orleans is 2-6 ATS its last eight season openers and the jury is still out with its new coach. Take the points with the Falcons.