Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers

Atlanta was very fortunate to pull out a victory over Carolina in overtime as the Panthers missed a chip-shot field goal and a 48-yard extra point that was due to a bonehead play by D.J. Moore who removed his helmet after a making a great catch to apparently win the game. The Falcons likely won't be so lucky against Los Angeles, which had won three straight before losing 37-23 to Seattle before a bye week and the Chargers have had extra time to prepare for this one. Justin Herbert has thrown for 2,009 yards and 12 touchdowns with only four interceptions this season and the Chargers are 8th in total yards gained and 4th in passing yardage. Atlanta is second-to-last in yards allowed and dead last while allowing 306.9 passing yards per game. Los Angeles is 12-3 ATS its past 15 games after losing by at least 10 points at home and the Chargers have covered nine of their past 13 road contests. The Falcons are 3-13 ATS and 8-3 UNDER after scoring more than 30 points their previous game and they are 7-2 UNDER following a win and 32-12 UNDER their past 44 November games. This is an inflated posted total due to last week when Atlanta and Carolina scored three touchdowns in the final 3:06 of regulation. Take the Chargers ATS as a Max Play and the UNDER.

Atlanta has spiraled out of any postseason hopes after losing two of the last three. And after playing two straight, and three of the last four at home, they take a long road trip out West. The Falcons are 2-13 ATS after allowing 400+ yards in their last game, plus 36-58 ATS against teams that complete 64% of their passes or better. Los Angeles won't be in a friendly mood after a record home loss to the Patriots, 45-0. Despite the shutout, this is still one of the most potent offenses in the league, ranked seventh in total yards (386.2 yards per game) and fourth in passing (272.9 per game) behind rookie QB Justin Herbert (22 TDs, 9 INTS). He faces a terrible Atlanta defense that is sixth-worst in yards allowed and third-worst at defending the pass, so look for a big bounce-back effort by the embarrassed home team playing its second straight home contest. Play Los Angeles.

San Diego enjoys a big scheduling advantage as it hasn't played since last Thursday's win over Denver while Atlanta suffered a tough loss at Seattle on Sunday. The Chargers gained some confidence after finally closing out a game without blowing it in the final minutes. Philip Rivers was 18 of 29 for 178 yards with no interceptions and a touchdown. Hunter Henry caught six passes for 83 yards, and Melvin Gordon rushed for 94 yards. The San Diego defense held the Broncos to 304 yards even though quarterback Trevor Siemian was forced to pass 50 times. The Falcons took advantage of some uncharacteristic blown coverages by the Seahawks secondary and took a 24-23 lead before Steven Hauschka's field goal won it for the home team. Matt Ryan was 27 of 42 for for 335 yards and three touchdowns. However, the running game fizzled as the Falcons gained only 52 yards on 2.9 yards per carry. San Diego is ranked #5 in the league in rush defense while Atlanta is #26 in pass defense. The Chargers have covered the spread eight of their last nine road games and eight of their last 10 overall dating to last season. The Falcons are 2-6 ATS their last eight home games. Grab the points and play the Chargers.

The Chargers are still thought of and hearalded as a great offensive team. Their is a solid QB, big name running back and tight end, and a cast of recievers that rank right up their as one of the NFL's best. It just isn't translating on the field. The Chargers have been held to 20 points or less in five of their last seven games, averaging just 19.4 ppg in the most recent seven. Suddenly, this team has become defensive. They have held five of the last eight opponents to under 20 points a gam. Atlanta has had a lot of success pounding the ball this season. Michael Turner has rushed for over 1,000 yards already and he is complimented by Jarius Norwood who has contributed almost 400 more. While the Falcons have been highly explosive at home where they have averaged 32.2 ppg, their offense on the road has been more like a cap gun, averaging just 16.6ppg. On the surface, this game looks like one that could light up the scoreboard. But the statistical reality is, those are false signs and this number is attractively inflated.