Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos

The Broncos have had a rough week, canceling Wednesday practice after a player was added to the COVID-19 list just after GM John Elway and team president Joe Ellis also tested positive. So two players and three assistant coaches are in quarantine. Denver's defense has been subpar, #17 in yards allowed and points allowed, #18 against the run. They've allowed 28 or more points in four of the last five games, off a 31-30 win at home over the Chargers allowing 485 yards. And the erratic offense is #27 in total yards and points (21 per game). Atlanta has turned things around under interim coach Raheem Morris, winning two of three. They had a one-point loss to Detroit sandwiched around a pair of impressive road victories at Minnesota (40-23) and at Carolina (25-17). QB Matt Ryan (12 TDs, 4 INTS) leads an offense that is sixth in yards, second in passing. The wagering value is on the home team that is playing well to win the game. Play Atlanta on the moneyline.

Atlanta needed to improve its depth after failing to deal with several injuries last season, and the Falcons have done it, especially on the offensive line. The Falcons added four linemen in free agency, plus chose two more in the draft. Matt Ryan will have extra protection after having endured 42 sacks, although he still completed 69.4 percent of his passes and threw for nearly 5,000 yards. Matt Schaub will again be Ryan's backup and will bring 16 years of NFL experience to the position. Schaub appeared in three games in 2018 and completed five of seven passes and obviously wasn't needed much with Ryan playing every game. Kurt Benkert will be the third quarterback, and he was signed as an undrafted free agent before the 2018 season, but played only on the practice squad. Schaub will probably get the bulk of the snaps in this game. Denver has a new coach and quarterback in Vic Fangio and Joe Flacco, as well as a new offensive coordinator in Rich Scangarello, who has never called plays at the NFL level.  Flacco will be backed up by Drew Lock, Kevin Hogan, and Brett Rypien. Hogan did not get into a regular-season game in 2018, and Rypien and Lock are rookies. Obviously, QB depth will be an issue in the Broncos' preseason. Atlanta coach, Dan Quinn, will be anxious to get off to a good start after a disappointing and injury-filled 2018 season. Play the Falcons on the moneyline.

The Atlanta Falcons started last season at 5-0 and quickly fell apart to finish 3-8 miss the playoffs. They are 3-1 to start this season, and the offense is clicking by far better than any other NFL team. The Ryan to Jones connection is becoming the most dangerous in the league. The Denver offense has been average from the line of scrimmage, while the back seven on defense is elite, which will provide the opening I see here for the Falcons on the ground. The Falcons have generated 4.7 yards per carry against teams allowing 4.0. The Broncos are a half yard worse stopping the run vs. lesser running games. Matt Ryan has actually played to a 12-13 SU record against teams that are .750 or better on the season, with a passer rating of 97.8, so he rises to the occasion vs. the better teams. Teams that start the season at 4-0 SU/ATS cover just 42% of he time in game five. These teams are pretty close right now, and more like a FG-spread type of game, so the line value is on the Falcons. Grab the points and play on Atlanta.