Atlanta Falcons vs Dallas Cowboys

Dallas was dominated by the Broncos in a 30-16 loss that wasn't nearly as close as the score indicates. Dak Prescott went 19 of 39 for 232 yards with an interception, and apparently, he hasn't fully recovered from a calf injury. Also, the Cowboys may be overrated as the only two teams they have beaten this season are currently above .500. They're laying big points again this week against Atlanta, which has won four of its last six, including Sunday's 27-25 victory at New Orleans when Matt Ryan hit Cordarrelle Patterson for a 64-yard gain with a minute left, and then Younghoe Koo kicked a 29-yard field goal as time expired. Ryan completed 23 of 30 for 343 yards and no picks, and the Falcons won despite gaining only 34 yards on the ground. This is a true revenge game for Atlanta, which lost 40-39 after blowing a 29-10 lead in 2020. The Cowboys will be without kicker Greg Zeurlein, who is on the COVID-19 list. The Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games, and Dallas is 0-4 ATS after a double-digit loss at home dating to previous seasons. Play the Falcons.

The Dallas Cowboys are arguably one of the most talented teams in the NFL. Despite all that, this team continues to struggle. They now have Mike McCarthy at the helm, but he has been somewhat of a control freak as he calls all the plays, much the same as he did in Green Bay. He had Aaron Rodgers at QB and somehow managed just one Super Bowl appearance, and Rodgers just didn't seem to thrive under his offensive schemes. His first game as the Dallas coach saw some issues. Dak Prescott was under siege the entire game as the Rams recorded 20 QB pressures. Dallas lost Byron Jones, and the secondary will have issues defending the Atlanta offense that had three receivers top the 100-yard mark last week. Additionally, Dallas is without Leighton Vander Esch and Sean Lee, weakening their LB group. This looks like a toss-up game, and I will welcome the points here. Make the play on Atlanta.

Dallas certainly surprised many with an impressive showing as a 7.5-point underdog in beating Philadelphia 27-20 on Sunday night. Ezekiel Elliott had 151 yards rushing, including a go-ahead one-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter and Dak Prescott passed for 270 yards with a touchdown and he also ran for a score. The Cowboys featured a balanced offense and totaled 171 rushing yards on 6.1 yards per carry. The most hopeful aspect for the Cowboys was the defense, which held the Eagles to 4-of-10 on third down conversion attempts, had an interception and allowed only three plays of at least 20 yards. Atlanta comes off an embarrassing loss as a 5.5-point favorite, losing 28-16 at Cleveland. Matt Ryan did his part in completing 38-of-52 passes for 330 yards and two touchdowns, but his counterpart, top draft pick Baker Mayfield enjoyed his best game of his young career throwing three TD passes and finishing 17-of-20 for 216 yards. Dallas has gone UNDER eight straight after a win and the Cowboys are 20-6 UNDER their last 26 road contests. Also, Dallas is 13-5 UNDER its last 18 overall and the Falcons are 22-9 UNDER their last 31 November games. Atlanta is 2-5 ATS its last seven games overall. Take the Cowboys and UNDER.

Dallas has won and covered three straight and is fourthin the NFL in scoring at 28.2 points per game while Atlanta's offense has sputtered under a new offensive coordinator and the Falcons still appear to be suffering from a post-Super Bowl hangover. Atlanta has lost four of its last five games and struggling in short-yardage situations and the Falcons are third in the league with 16 dropped passes, including a crucial one by Julio Jones in last week's loss to Carolina. Also, the Falcons have been hurt by a total of 61 penalties this season and they have scored an average of only 16.6 points their last five games. Matt Ryan finished 24-of-38 for 313 yards with two touchdowns and an interception against the Panthers, but the Falcons managed to gain just 53 yards on the ground. Ezekiel Elliott is out for this game, but the Cowboys are surging and Dak Prescott was 21-of-33 for 249 yards with two TDs and no picks in his team's win against Kansas City last week. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS their last five games and 2-6 ATS their last eight November games.  Dallas is 11-4 ATS its last 15 games after an ATS win and under Jason Garrett, this team is 28-17 ATS as an underdog. When facing good offensive teams like Dallas (teams averaging 350+ yards per game), the Falcons are 9-1 to the OVER since the start of last season. And, as a favorite over that span, Atlanta is 14-4 to the OVER including a perfect 8-0 to the OVER at home. Under Garrett, Dallas is 24-13 OVER vs. teams like Atlanta that complete 64%+ of their passes. Take the Cowboys and the OVER here.