Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers

Atlanta has benefitted from playing four of its first five games at home. Despite a 3-2 record, they're getting outscored on the season. They have one of the worst run defenses in the league surrendering 148.4 yards rushing per game, plus are last in the NFL on third down (48.53%). Atlanta is on a 6-15 spread run. Carolina will attack that soft run defense with RB Chuba Hubbard (393 yards, 5.8 ypc) on an offense that averages 4.7 yards per carry, 10th in the NFL. Carolina beat Atlanta on this field when they last met, 9-7, as an underdog. Carolina ran for 129 yards and held a time-of-possession edge of 33:56 to 26:04, so back the home dog in this division rivalry clash. Play Carolina.

Carolina would like to avenge an opening-week loss to Atlanta that started the Panthers on a path to a nightmare season, including a coaching change. The Falcons haven't had a great year themselves and they have lost four of six, including 29-25 to Tampa Bay last week. Atlanta wasted a good effort by Desmond Ritter as he threw for 347 yards and a touchdown, but Baker Mayfield threw a go-ahead 11-yard pass to Cade Otton with 31 seconds left for the Buccaneers and the game soared OVER by 12.5 points. Atlanta is just 2-7 ATS its past nine games as a favorite and 2-6 ATS overall following an ATS loss. The Falcons are 3-9 ATS their past 12 games overall and 3-8 ATS on the road. The Panthers have gone OVER four of their past five December games. This is a low posted total and Atlanta allows 20.7 points per game. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS as road favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points. Carolina outgained New Orleans 303-207, but was burned by two bad plays on special teams. Take the Panthers as a Max Play and the OVER.

Carolina upgraded the offense with QB Bryce Young from Alabama and the defense has talent to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The defense took a step back last year but was No. 2 in the NFL in yards allowed two years ago. The Panthers are 141-109 ATS as an underdog. Atlanta is favored but is a young team trying to plug holes everywhere. The Falcons go with run-oriented QB Desmond Ridder, who has 73 NFL passes. The defense has been awful for a while ranked 26th in total yards allowed last season with no pass rush while ranked 31st on third down (45.9%). NFL favorites like the Falcons that come off a losing campaign are 139-218 ATS in conference games. In addition, NFL chalk like Atlanta which failed to make the playoffs while losing their final two games are 6-29 ATS in the first month of the new season. Play Carolina.

This game will bring back painful memories for Carolina, which lost the last meeting when DJ Moore made a great catch to apparently win the game in the final seconds, only to be penalized for taking off his helmet. The Panthers missed the extra point and then a chip-shot field goal attempt in overtime and eventually lost 37-34. It was Atlanta's turn to suffer a heartbreaking loss last week as Cameron Dicker kicked a 37-yard field goal as time expired giving the Chargers a 20-17 victory over the Falcons, who still are tied for the lead with a 4-5 record in the NFC South. Meanwhile, the Panthers have less motivation with a 2-7 record and there are rumors of Moore being traded to Green Bay. Carolina is just 3-6 ATS this season compared to 6-3 ATS for Atlanta and QB Marcus Mariota has been more than adequate for the Falcons. He has thrown for 1,561 yards and 10 touchdowns with six interceptions. The Falcons went UNDER by 13 points on Sunday and they have stayed UNDER four of six games. The UNDER is 13-5-1 the past 19 meetings and the Falcons are 33-12 UNDER their past 45 November games. The Panthers are 8-3 UNDER after allowing at least 30 points their previous game. Atlanta has covered 13 of 19 against teams with losing records. Take the Falcons to cover and make it a Max Play on the UNDER.