Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

Seattle can still clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Green Bay loss or tie making this a meaningful game so Arizona should have no intention of sitting Kyler Murray, who is the franchise player for the Cardinals. Murray threw for 232 yards and three TDs as the Cardinals stunned Philadelphia 35-31 on the road as a double-digit underdog. Murray has thrown for 1,537 yards and nine TDs with a 64.7 percent completion rate in seven games since returning from surgery and the Cardinals always have a chance when he's on the field. In addition, James Connor has rushed for 890 yards on 4.9 yards per carry and he scored the go-ahead touchdown in the win against the Eagles. Seattle has lost five of seven following Sunday's 30-23 defeat against Pittsburgh and the game went OVER by 12.5 points. Geno Smith threw for 290 yards and a TD, but it wasn't enough as the Seahawks dropped to 8-8 on the season. Arizona is 4-2-1 OVER since Murray returned and it went OVER by 19 points against the Eagles. Seattle is 1-9-2 ATS its past 12 games after allowing more than 350 yards its previous game and 2-6-1 ATS overall versus the NFC West. Arizona is 7-0 OVER as a home underdog and 7-0 OVER its past seven home games overall. Take the Cardinals and the OVER.

Geno Smith, who was the NFL Comeback Player of the Year in 2022, but opposing defenses have made the necessary adjustments in slowing down. Smith threw for 323 yards in last week’s 17-13 loss to Cincinnati, but he also was picked off twice and the Seahawks failed to score four times in the red zone. Home favorites coming off a road loss are just 104-146 (41.6%) ATS over the past five and a half seasons. Seattle allows 21.6 points per game and it has gone UNDER seven of its past 10 games. Arizona stayed UNDER by 12.5 points while losing 26-9 to the Rams and Joshua Dobbs went 21 of 41 for 235 yards. The UNDER is 16-5 in Arizona’s past 21 games played on FieldTurf and the Cardinals have stayed UNDER 20 of 29 road games. The Seahawks have gone UNDER four of its past five home games and UNDER the past two weeks by an average of 17 points. Arizona is struggling, but Seattle is not good enough to be laying over a touchdown. Take the Cards and the UNDER.

The Seattle Seahawks were supposed to start a steep rebuild after Russell Wilson was traded. That has not been the case as the Seahawks have started 5-3 and sit atop the NFC West. Arizona started 7-0 last season, but at 3-5, they have been a big disappointment. Kyler Murray has taken a step back from last season and he has just 10 TD passes to 6 INTs on the season. These teams know each other well and have played many lower-scoring games than expected in recent play as they are 5-2 to the under in the last 7 meetings. Their last meeting saw just 28 total points scored in a game with a total of 50.5. I expect something similar here. Make the play on the Under.

Seattle has gotten more out of Geno Smith than they ever expected. He has thrown for 9 TDs and just 2 INTs. It is unlikely he will continue to put up those types of numbers going forward. Kyler Murray is really struggling through 5 games. He is averaging a career-low of 5.8 yards per attempt. Arizona has been good defensively allowing fewer than 20ppg in their last 4. Seattle has run the ball 45 and 48 times in their 5 games, so the Seahawks would prefer to run the ball and shorten the game. Home teams to a total of higher than 49.5 that allowed 8 passing yards per attempt or more in their previous game have played under the total to a record of 55-23 ATS in their next game. Make the play under the total.