Utah at Los Angeles

The Lakers cruised past the Nuggets in four. They aren't facing the Nuggets today. Sure, LA is the better team on the court today. But, Utah is a much, much better team than the Nuggets. Denver played  no defense and had a history all season of crumbling against good opposition. Utah is more talented, more committed to defense, and deeper. They struggled a bit with Houston but we think that helps them here vs. a Lakers team that has yet to be challenged. After that series sweep and an MVP award for Kobe, we wouldn't be surprised to see the Lakers a bit overconfident. Utah struggled on the road for most of the season but at the end of the year, they put that behind them. They held the Rockets to 88 ppg and they should have much more success than Denver at slowing down the Lakers. The Jazz are 29-14 ATS this year vs. winning teams (20-6 in their last 26). They thrive vs. big three-point shooting teams like LA (21-7 ATS vs. teams making 6+ threes per game. They can also play in shootouts as they are 34-23 ATS this season in games with a total of 200 or more. The Jazz lost to Los Angeles 106-95 at home in March and they are 16-5 ATS this season seeking revenge. We expect a focused and deep Utah team to keep this game closer than this large spread. We also like the UNDER. As mentioned earlier, these teams combined for just 201 points in their last matchup and this being the playoffs, we expect heightened intensity. Utah knows their shot here is to keep this from getting too high scoring and they will play accordingly. The Jazz this season are 26-16 UNDER vs. teams that attempt 18+ three pointers per game. They are also 15-4 UNDER in the first game of a playoff series under Jerry Sloan. Sloan will bring the defense. We like the Jazz and the UNDER.