Utah at Houston

Houston has been one of the top defensive teams at home over the past few years, and this is a pivital game five. That usually spells defense in the NBA playoffs, and that has been the trend this entire series, as neither team has shot well from the floor or from beyond the arc. When you see a couple games in a series play to scores under 160, there is no doubt where the emphasis lies, and history has proven it to be true. When there is a game in the opening round in the NBA that totals 160 or less, all subsequent games go under 70% of the time for the rest of the series. When there is a second game that does also, that percentage climbs to 79%. This game won't be won or lost behind the 3-pt line, it will be won by the team that plays the best without the ball, and we like the under here. This game is a toss-up to us, and that makes the points look good for Utah. Utah is averaging just 41.2% from the floor, but Houston has only shot over 40% in one game, and stands at a woeful 37.7% on the series. The true difference is Houston, a 75% FT shooting team has hit 86% in their two wins, while Utah, also a 75% FT shooting team, has shot 65% in their two losses. That difference has equated to 5 points per game, and is the margin of Houston covering, or not covering. We think that margin settles out tonight in Utah's favor, or at least even. That favors the team getting six points. Houston is just 10-23 ATS at home vs. winning teams and 9-19 ATS at home after scoring 85 points or less the past two seasons. When scoring 85 or less in back-to-back games, they are just 1-11 ATS the past three seasons! We'll take the points here and the UNDER.