This pick was released to clients on April 28, 2018 at 7:55PM ET.
img NBA

Utah at Houston

April 29, 2018
img3:30 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

This is a tough matchup for Utah, heading out on the road for Game 1 against the top-seeded Rockets. Utah is all about defense at second in the NBA in points allowed and sixth in field goal shooting allowed. They will try and slow the pace down today, especially with point guard Ricky Rubio dealing with a hamstring injury that knocked him out of the first quarter of Friday's contest. Houston plays great defense, as well. They are sixth in the league during the regular season in points allowed and seventh at defending beyond the arc. Houston is on a 17-7 run UNDER the total, plus 26-9 UNDER against the Western Conference. When these teams last met in February, it was a 96-85 Houston win, sailing UNDER the total. Even the First-Half half went UNDER in a 44-39 Houston halftime lead. As to who wins and covers? Houston has won 23 of its last 24 home games counting the playoffs, and the Rockets are 9-2 ATS playing on three or more days rest. Houston dominated Utah in four meetings during the regular season, winning by an average of 17.5 points. James Harden averaged 34.3 points against the Jazz in those games. Utah is 2-7 ATS in the last nine meetings in Houston, so back home court in a defensive duel from the opening tip. Play Houston, the First-Half UNDER, and the whole game UNDER the total. 

1.5 units on Houston -11.5 (-103) (risk 1.5 to return 2.96)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on 1st ½ Total UNDER 99.5 -110 (risk 1.5 to return 2.86)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 206.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
Final
1
2
3
4
F
Utah Jazz
21
18
29
28
96
Houston Rockets img
34
30
22
24
110
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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