Utah at Houston

We were on Utah in game one of this series as they cruised on the road to an easy 11 point win. We will let history be our guide for this game two in this matchup. Since the 95-96 playoffs (the last 11 years), the results of game two have been extremely decisive when the road team wins game one in the first round. There have been 21 times a road team has broken through on the road in game one and what follows is not pretty for these teams. While they won the first game by an average margin of 8.6 ppg, they have gotten beat up pretty bad in the next outing., losing by an average of 12.4 ppg. That is an amazing 21 ppg turnaround which is the largest such change in any playoff game, any round. The home team has come back to post an 18-3 SU mark in game two, winning 15 of the 18 by double digits, and none by fewer than 7 points! In these games they are 18-3 ATS! The psychology is part of what is at work here. The road team goes on the road hoping for a split to take over home court advantage. Having captured that, there is an inevitable letdown in intensity. Meanwhile after a loss in game one at home, the losers know that another loss means they are pretty much finished. It falls into the old wagering adage of, "the team in need, is the team indeed." The oddsmakers have left this one alone, as they posted the exact same line as game one. But these games have proven over a very long period of time that the home team has shown to be, on average, 21 points better in game two after a game one loss. We will back the Rockets here to even things up.