San Antonio at Utah

Utah made a statement in game three, winning 109-83. We really liked them in that spot. Tonight's game is tougher to call. While Utah is now 7-0 at home in the playoffs and perfect here against the Spurs this season, San Antonio is very tough off a loss in the Duncan era. And Deron Williams, a key part of the Utah formula in game three, missed practice yesterday with the stomach flu. His playing status is unclear. Even if he plays, he will likely be dehydrated and fatigued. So we'll instead look to the total. With Williams (31 points in game three) likely not at full-speed, we need to look at the UNDER. We see a low-scoring affair given what is likely to be San Antonio's formula in this game. When they get beat down, they get back to what makes them arguably the best team in basketball: defense. After giving up 109 points and getting beaten by 26 points, they will, especially right out of the gate, play inspired defense. They will come out very strong on this front and try to keep the score low to play to their strengths. Tim Duncan was in foul trouble for much of game three and he's too smart to get there again. With him playing more aggressively, it will be much tougher for the Jazz to score here. We like the first-half UNDER for other reasons too. The Spurs are 23-8 UNDER the first half line the past two seasons in expected close games (those with a first half line of -1.5 to 1.5). Again, it's their style in these games to come back to their defensive strengths. Since the mid-way point in the season, the Spurs are 18-9 UNDER in the first half vs. winning teams. They are 29-19 UNDER vs. teams that score 99+ per game. Even when they are facing teams that shoot the ball well, they go UNDER as they are 23-11 UNDER in the first half the past two seasons vs. teams shooting 46%+ from the field. The clincher? Games involving two very good teams (60%+) have gone UNDER at a 77% clip the past five seasons (39-12) when one team is revenging a 20+ point blowout loss. We expect inspired San Antonio defense leading to a first-half UNDER here.