San Antonio at Utah

The way Utah has looked in San Antonio, many are saying this is going to be a 4 game series sweep by the Spurs. The way games one and two went, it was not a bit surprising to us. Utah has not won a game at San Antonio since February 28th 1999, and stand at 0-17 there. If 0-17 wasn't bad enough, in the last five they have been down by 12 or more at the half. So the result of the first two playoff games have fallen right in line with history. - over by halftime. Does this mean San Antonio rolls the rest of the way? We think not. The venue changes tonight and so do the results. Utah is simply a different team at home and with their backs to the wall, and playing at home, is when you typically see the best game they can muster. For San Antonio, the opposite is true. The intensity may be a bit slack - it is just the situation, not the team. San Antonio in the Duncan era, when they have had the home-court advantage in the playoffs, have been very poor in this situation. They have had a 2-0 lead heading for game 3 on the road nine times. They have a 1-8 ATS record in those 9 games. The intensity of a team that has a 2-0 lead is far more lax than one that lost the home-court advantage and needs game 3 to get it back. San Antonio has been 7-1 when they have hit the road with the series tied 1-1, so you can see the difference in the intensity of play. Utah has been a very tough at home, handling San Antonio here in both games during the regular season. They are 6-0 in the playoffs at home, winning five of the six by double digits, and they have beaten this year's playoff field to the tune of a 22-7 record. San Antonio when up 2-0, has lost game 3 in the playoffs by an average of 11 ppg in the 8 ATS losses, but when coming in 1-1, they won by an average of 13 ppg. It says to us that the desparate home team, that has the home pedigree, is a wiser choice than the comfortable road team that simply doesn't bring the same intensity to game 3 with a 2-0 lead. Utah is 56-19 SU in home playoff games since 1990, and we will ride them here tonight. There is also some solid logic for a play on the UNDER here - both first-half and game. San Antonio has had a 2-0 lead in a playoff series nine times, and on six of those occasions, both of the first game totals went OVER. The third games have averaged an amazing 25 points less than the lowest scoring game of either of the first two OVERs! The value is at it's highest point all series, as the total which was 186.5 for game one has risen to 190.5 for game three. These games have produced similar results for the first half as well. The Spurs are 9-4 to the first half UNDER in the playoffs and Utah, even despite some barn burners vs. Golden State, is 8-6 the the first hallf UNDER. Take the Jazz, first half UNDER and game UNDER here.