San Antonio at New Orleans

Chris Paul definitely means a lot to this New Orleans Hornets team, but the oddsmakers have over-estimated just how much. The Hornets have played nine games at home without Paul in the lineup as a home dog, and have a 6-3 ATS mark. More importantly, have won five of those outright! Overall, the Hornets are 14-7-1 ATS without Paul in the lineup, so we truly have an over consideration by the oddsmakers here. The Spurs are an aging team, and have been quite less effective playing consecutive nights at just 3-6 ATS. Plus a team that scores over 100 per game is diminished to 91.6 ppg with no rest. The Spurs are just 2-8 ATS after allowing 100 or more, while the Hornets are feasting as home dogs at 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29. The home team has covered 12 of the last 15 in this series, so I like New Orleans here.