San Antonio at Miami

Despite trailing, the Heat remain the favorite to win the series. This team has lacked the focus of their "A" game when they are off a win, but have delivered big in the game following a loss where they have now won and covered 12 straight times. The Heat know the path to a championship begins and ends on the defensive end. The last 10 times they lost, they have come back to hold opponents to 84 points per game. That sets the stage here for them to come out swarming on the defensive end. San Antonio is not new to the playoffs - they have been a fixture here in the Duncan era. They know they have to match that defensive intensity early to keep the crowd out of the game. Elimination games tend to turn more defensive, especially early. Make the play on the first half UNDER.