San Antonio at Miami

The San Antonio Spurs dispatched Memphis in four games, and have now been idle for 11 days. While the rest may have been good for the Spurs to heal some bumps and bruises, the recent history shows that it doesn't help much in Game One of their next series. Road teams that have had more than five days of rest in the playoffs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. The rust has shown up the most on offense as these eight teams have averaged just 90.4 points per game. The Heat were extended to a seven game series vs. the Pacers, but when they needed to flex their muscles they delivered the knockout blow, winning in easy fashion 99-76 in Game Seven. The defense played a big role in them winning last year, and getting to the Finals again this year. The Heat through 16 playoffs games have not allowed any team to reach the century mark in regulation, and has held five of those teams in the 70s or less. The last eight years have seen the home favorite in the NBA Finals win by 8 points or more each time, and by a combined 101 points. The Spurs have a lot of playoffs experience, and know the way to the title starts on the defensive end, as they have played 13 of their last 16 road games to the UNDER. The Heat are of the same ilk with 17 of their last 22 vs. a winning team have failed to reach the total. These teams have also played defense against each other with the UNDER at 20-5 in the last 25 meetings. The Heat will look to build on their 4-0 ATS run in the NBA Championship round, so I like them to get it done. Play on Miami and take UNDER.