San Antonio at Los Angeles

The LA Clippers find themselves down in their series to San Antonio three games to none. They came out yesterday like gang-busters, building a 24 point lead. It looked as if they were paving their way into getting back in this series, then the wheels fell off and San Antonio out-scored them by 34 points the rest of the way. If you look at the game numbers, and not the final score, you would of thought that the Clippers won the game. They out shot the Spurs, out rebounded the Spurs and had fewer turnovers. The big problem in the game was an empty 8 point third quarter. The oddsmakers have taken this number beyond fair at this point, elevating the Clippers to a 7.5 point home underdog. Remember, the exact same thing happened with this Spurs team in their opening round series vs. Utah, where they also had a 3-0 lead.  The line reached a point of over-value on them then, at the same -7.5 we see here. And, LA is a better team than Utah. That game saw the Spurs held to 87 points, the only time, until yesterday, they failed to reach 100 in their current 17 game winning streak. Look for a similar game as teams facing elimination at home play hard and the Clippers have been that kind of team as they are 6-1 ATS after a double-digit loss at home in their last seven. These teams have also played tough physical defensive games in LA, that has now seen the UNDER rule the roost to the tune of 18-3-1 ATS in the last 22 played here. The Clippers are 5-0 to the UNDER in their last five after a loss and are 18-7 to the UNDER on no rest in their last 25. Play on LA and the UNDER.