San Antonio at Denver

Denver gave San Antonio all they could handle last year - one of the few teams to do well against the Spurs. Sure, the Spurs are the better team but Denver matches up fairly well. George Karl still knows how to do well at home as the Nuggets are 24-13 ATS at home under him. Denver's been involved in some very high scoring games which suits them well. They are 10-1 ATS at home after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Denver is also 11-2 OVER after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Underdogs with a losing record facing a great team that has covered 3 of 4 games are 82-40 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Games witha total between 190 and 199.5 points featuring a team that scores 99+ points/game (Denver averaging 99.6), coming off 5 straight games scoring 100+ have gone OVER 73% of the time (35-13) over the last 5 seasons. Denver is scoring a ton right now behind Melo and San Antonio's defense is measurably worse on the road. One star on Denver and one on the OVER.