San Antonio at Dallas

San Antonio is not used to being down 2-1. After losing by just a bucket in game one, the Mavericks have taken two straight including a close one and a blowout in San Antonio. Something tells me this is Dallas' year. While San Antonio appears to need this one more, I can argue that Dallas is more in need of a win. Dallas knows that this is their best shot at winning the West. These shots don't come along often. And, if they drop a game at home, they give the home court advantage right back the the Spurs - not something you want to do given that San Antonio is 38-8 at home. Both teams view this game as a must-win. Again, given that, I like the Mavs at home. Dallas matches up well against San Antonio. They are 21-12 ATS this season vs. great three point teams and 13-4 ATS vs. great defensive teams (those allowing under 92 ppg) during the second half of this season. They are also 17-5 ATS vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 3+ points per game. In other words, San Antonio's strengths don't phase Dallas - they cover the spread against teams that fit the Spurs' mold. That's why Dallas is 5-2 straight up vs. San Antonio here in Dallas over the past three seasons. In the NBA, road underdogs off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are just 5-28 in games involving two good teams (60%+ SU) over the past decade. Dallas here at home in the virutal pick 'em.