Sacramento at Milwaukee

Sacramento has a tough task here vs. a surging Bucks squad that has only lost four games in the past three months. Sacramento is ranked #24 in the NBA in scoring, #19 in shooting, #14 from long range, and #18 from the free-throw line. Milwaukee's defense is seventh in the NBA in points surrendered and tops in field goal shooting allowing 40.9%. This, along with Giannis' stellar recent play, is the reason this line is so high, but I think it's an over-reaction. Teams on a roll can often get a bit over-confident vs. lower power foes. Let's not forget that the Kings have won six of their past eight games, and this team is 35-23 ATS in games set with a high total in the 220s since last season. They are also 11-2 ATS this season revenging a loss! Milwaukee is on an 8-5-1 run UNDER the total, plus 15-3 UNDER at home off a road win by 10+ points. Play the Kings and take the UNDER.