Sacramento at Dallas

The Dallas Mavericks have been a marginal team over their last 14 games when they need to win the most. Dallas has posted just a 7-7 record down the stretch. One problem is their reluctance to play both ends of the court, as the Mavs have been burned for 112.8 points per game over their last five. That will make things difficult to attack and take down an inflated line here. The Kings were just +10.5 point underdogs at San Antonio, so the line here suggests they are on the same level, which simply is not true. Sacramento may not win a lot of games, but they sure have been competitive to big numbers where they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five taking 9 or more, as well as 4-0-1 ATS in their last five following a loss. This one is closer than it looks, so make the play on Sacramento.