Sacramento at Dallas

There is no doubt scoring is up in the NBA and we have seen a lot of games posted in the 240s, but regardless of the pace, this is a bit out of reach. This is also a game with playoff-seeding implications so I don't believe the offenses here are going to have a clear run, it should be more defensive than the line would indicate. This would have been the first time all season the Mavericks had a total of 244 or more, but there was midday line movement on this one and it's down to 241.5 at this time. The Kings have had seven totals set at 244.5 or greater this season and those games went 5-2 UNDER, staying south of the number by an average of -7.7 points per game. It's no surprise this total has seen downward pressure, but I still think the number is too high. All games in the NBA posted at 241.5 and up are 23-18 UNDER (56%), including a 65% UNDER trend with home faves laying -4 or more. Make the play UNDER the total.