Portland at Memphis

Mike Conley is hobbled but playing through it, scoring 16 in Memphis' opening game win. He's motivated here and it's not just about playoff basketball. Portland's Damian Lillard got the call to replace Blake Griffin in the All-Star game and Conley has something to prove. Portland just isn't playing good basketball right now. Over their last five games, they are giving up 108.4 per game while scoring just 96.8 - nearly a 12 point deficit! Given that the Grizzlies give up just 93 per game in this building, it's very hard to imagine a scenario where the Trailblazers can win this game. The Blazers like to run-and-gun, shooting over 86 shots per game. But that's no problem for Memphis as they are 29-12 straight-up this season vs. teams that average 83+ shots per game including 15-3 in the last 18 such games. Portland is just 19-23 on the road this season and 7-14 after a road loss. The OVER is 9-4 when the Blazers opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, and the team is 11-5 OVER the total on the road against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Dating back to last season, Portland is 53-38 OVER vs. winning teams including 25-11 OVER vs. teams at .600 or better. As an underdog this year, they are 19-7 OVER. Take Memphis to win this game straight-up and given Portland's defensive struggles, go with the OVER.