Portland at Dallas

The Portland Trail Blazers have been the surprise team in the NBA this year. Their talent at the top is as good as any team, so they aren't going away any time soon. The general pubic is still not in line with Portland being an elite team. Here we are looking at just one of three NBA teams with less than 10 losses, but the line is not respecting the quality. The Los Angeles Clippers and the San Antonio Spurs were both larger favorites here in Dallas, so we certainly can claim line value. The Mavs have been destroying the books on the road, but they have not found the same magic on their home court where they have tended to be over-valued, as we have that situation in play here. Dallas is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 at home. Portland built a reputation for being an OVER team with a 20-3 run to the OVER before the oddsmakers considered them real. They have since been totaled too high in an over-compensation, and have played five of their last eight to the UNDER. They have been a defensively conscious team after allowing 100 points or more, as they have followed by going UNDER in four of their last five. Intense games usually yield fewer points, and expect that to be the case here. Make the play on Portland and take the UNDER.