Phoenix at Toronto

Everything seems to be going perfect for Phoenix, but I think they get a fight tonight in Toronto from the Raptors. This Toronto team lost to Phoenix by just one point. Phoenix was losing the game with just 39 seconds left in that one. And that close game was in Phoenix. The Suns are a perfect 10-0 at home, but they have suffered three road losses. Toronto is just 2-8 on the road but 5-2 at home. These teams play a similar game so Phoenix won't have an easy time just running away with this one. The Suns are just 5-16 ATS the past three seasons when facing a team at .400 to .490. They also struggle vs. teams that go for broke like they do as Phoenix is 15-26 ATS dating back to last season when facing a team that attempts 18+ three-pointers per game (Toronto averages 20 per game). Finally, the Suns are just 38-60 ATS after back-to-back double digit wins. I like Toronto here. I also like the OVER. These teams both want to run and gun. Yes, this total is set high, but not high enough. Phoenix puts up 82 shots per game and Toronto 80. On the road, the Suns actually kick it up to 84 per game. Phoenix is averaging 112 per game and 105 per game allowed while Toronto has similar numbers. The Suns are 53-29 OVER the past three seasons vs. teams that attempt 18+ three-pointers per game and 20-8 OVER on the road vs. teams that make 6+ per game from beyond the arc. They are also 14-4 OVER the past three seasons on the road vs. teams that allow 103+ per game. The Suns are also 15-2 OVER the past two seasons when coming off a win by 15+ points. Meanwhile, Toronto is 31-18 OVER the past two seasons vs. winning teams.