We banked on the UNDER in the last game in this series taking advantage of a total that proved to be WAY out of whack. This total, as expected has dropped five full points. Given how low scoring game 3 was though, you have to wonder if the UNDER is again a play. The risk here, without going into a lot of detail, is that this game is different than the last. Historically when teams get up 3-0, the intensity of the following game drops significantly. The 0-3 team knows it's over and the 3-0 team doesn't have quite the pressure they had prior. I like the UNDER a little but don't think there's nearly as big an edge there as we had last game. So, if I had to guess, this one will go UNDER but we don't have a big edge here so I'll stay away from the total.
Instead, let's look at the side. How can you consider taking the Suns in this series any more? I can't. They just can't stay with the Spurs. The spread has gone from 5.5 to 6 and will proabably climb as we get closer to game time. The public got burned on Phoenix over the past few games (or made a lot on San Antonio) and will be all over the Spurs here. That's what makes me nervous about taking San Antonio minus the points. Instead, we're going to look at the money-line.
Tim Duncan was interviewed by Jim Gray immediately after the game 3 win. Gray asked Duncan if he expected a sweep. You'd expect him to take the high-road and say something like "I can't answer that. This is a good Phoenix team, blah blah blah..." I mean, why would he want to give the Suns any ammo by essentially guaranteeing a game four victory? Instead, Duncan looked right into the camera and said "Yeah, we expect a sweep." Wow! Even though they are up 3-0, guaranteeing a sweep takes some stones. This goes to show how serious and confident Duncan and the Spurs are about not having to go back to Phoenix. This guy, and this team, are all business. They REALLY don't want to have to travel again because their eye is set on nothing less than the championship. Closing out in four would give them a huge advantage over their Eastern Conference foe and this experienced team knows it. So, we know San Antonio will play hard. We know they have both the physical and psychological advantage over the Suns. But is history on their side? Let's take a look.
Favorites facing a high-scoring team (those scoring 99+ points/game) off four or more straight games where they allowed 100+ points are 110-24-110 (82%) straight-up. Let's break this down a bit more to see if there's an even better edge. If we narrow the above situation down to home money-line favorites -165 to -450, the situation gets even better: 46 out of 55 (86%).
Phoenix's defense is terrible. They don't pressure and that plays right into the hands of the Spurs as we have seen in the first three games. The Spurs are 16-0 straight-up at home this year versus poor pressure defensive teams (forcing <14 turnovers/game) and 17-0 at home versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game. San Antonio is 44-4 overall at home this season: 96 at the SBC Center. Now they have a real strong reason to win against a team they have shown they can beat. The Suns are beat down and know it's over. Everything lines up for a San Antonio win. Four stars on the Spurs money-line.