Game 1: San Antonio 121, Phoenix 114 for a total of 235 points (28 over the posted total of 207)
Game 2: San Antonio 111, Phoenix 108 for a total of 219 points (comfortably 7.5 over the posted total of 211.5)
In both of these games, each team easily put up over 100 points. San Antonio showed they could keep pace with the high-flying Phoenix Suns. The public was on the OVER in both of these contests and they proved themselves right. Heck, everyone knows Phoenix can score points and San Antonio showed that they can outscore the Suns in back to back games, even in the Suns' backyard. The average total score in the first two games was 227 points. Game 3 has got to be OVER this "low" total of 214, right? No way Jose. This total is WAY too high. Phoenix will run into a defensive buzz saw and this game will go UNDER. Let me explain...
Unlike a lot of NBA teams, San Antonio's defense is very different home vs. away. This year, they have allowed an average of 93.7 points per game on the road vs. 84.6 at home. That's a huge difference of 9.1 points per game. It get's even better in the playoffs. This year the difference in San Antonio's points allowed between home and away games is a staggering 13.9 per game (100.6 away vs. 86.7 at home). In the Tim Duncan era, the Spurs simply shut teams down at home - especially in the playoffs. San Antonio has played 49 playoff games over the last 8 years. How many times has an opponent scoreed 100 or more points on them? How about 4 times. The other 92% of the time, they hold an opponent under 100 points. If we set the bar at 104.5 points (the TEAM TOTAL points for Phoenix in this game), the number drops to 2 out of 49. So, in the last 8 years, 96% of the time San Antonio has kept teams under 104 points at home. I like dem odds.
So that's the Tim Duncan playoff era. What about this year? The Spurs have played 48 games at home this year. How many times has 214 points been scored this year in San Antonio? Ummmm. How about ZERO! You'd have to go back to November 6th, 2003 to find a game that would top this posted total. Since that day, the Spurs are 90-0 UNDER 214 points at home!
I can hear it now... "But this is Phoenix and they aren't a normal team. They can flat out score!" Yes, most of those 90 teams were not as proflific as this year's Suns. So, let's look at situations among those 90 games where San Antonio did play a high-powered offense. During the last 8 years in the playoffs, San Antonio played in nine series in which their opponent scored 100+ on the Spurs away from San Antonio. These 9 teams were high-scoring and averaged 104 points per game. What happened when the Spurs returned home, as they are on Saturday night? Can you believe that not one of them reached 104 points? It's true. And only 3 reached 90 points! The highest-powered of the bunch, the 2001-2002 Dallas Mavericks avered 109.5 ppg that year. They put up 111 on the Spurs at in Dallas. When they returned to San Antonio for three games, the Mavs scored 78, then 86, then 87. That's right! A team averaging nearly 110 per game that scored 111 on the Spurs were held to under 90 points in three straight games (and averaged 83.7 in three games). In total, in the 23 games played against teams that scored 100+ on the Spurs away from San Antonio, when they got to San Antonio, these teams that averaged 104 ppg..... drumroll please..... averaged 83.6 ppg vs. San Antonio! That is 21 ppg below their normal average. Think San Antonio can shut down the Suns on Saturday night? You bet! As I said, this line is way, way, way off and we'll use that to our advantage.
The plays are Phoenix UNDER 104.5 team points for five starsand another five stars on the the Game Total UNDER 214 points. The last time I released a TEAM TOTAL play like this I had some subscribers ask where they could make that wager. Betcom, MyBookie and ParlayBook all offer that bet with the Phoenix team total sitting currently at 104.5 Use any of the links below to sign up with them (you'll get a 20% deposit bonus, too).