Phoenix at San Antonio

In what is turning into a rough-and-tumble series, the Spurs took a 2-1 lead by winning their first home game. If that style of play continues, it favors the tougher Spurs over the up-tempo Suns. Nash and Stoudemire are not playing well right now and if that continues, they'll lose the series. San Antonio stole one in Phoenix and they know that a loss here gives the homecourt edge right back to Phoenix. The Spurs were 34-11 at home this season, keeping opponents under 90 points per game. They are more experienced and more battle tested. At home this season they were 14-5 ATS vs. good shooting teams (46%+) including 10-2 in the last twelve. They have also gone 17-4 ATS vs. up-tempo teams in late season play the past three seasons (vs. teams averaging 83+ shots per game). This is backed up by an 18-7 ATS mark in games with a total of 200+. They find a way to slow you down and we think they will again frustrate the Suns through physical play and come away with the win and cover in what is a very important game for them.