This pick was released to clients on April 28, 2024 at 12:01PM ET.
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Phoenix at New Orleans

April 28, 2022
img7:30 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

NBA Playoffs, First Round Game of the Year: Phoenix is back on track after losing Game 4 and the Suns came out and beat the Pelicans 112-97 while not trailing the entire game Tuesday night. Mikal Bridges scored 31 points and Chris Paul added 22 points and 11 assists, as Phoenix is getting more comfortable playing without injured Devin Booker. The Suns shot 50-percent and held New Orleans to 40-percent as they took a 3-2 lead in the series. New Orleans forward Brandon Ingram will be playing with his right ring and pinky fingers taped up after he jammed them. Game 5 stayed UNDER by 6.5 points and the Suns are 10-4-1 UNDER their past 15 conference quarterfinal games. The Pelicans are 51-37 UNDER this year and over their last five games, they are averaging just 46.6 points in the first half. Dating back to last season, Phoenix is 34-18 to the UNDER in expected close games (spreads of -3 to +3). The Suns have already gone UNDER in the first-half 51 times out 87 games this season including 19-9 UNDER when the total is set in this range (100.5 to 105.5) and 24-90 UNDER as a road favorite. New Orleans is 14-6 UNDER in the first-half this season when the line is close (-3 to +3) and 24-14 UNDER when the first-half total is 100.5 to 105.5 and 41-23 UNDER as a dog. Finally, the Pelicans are 36-15 UNDER in the first-half this season when revenging a loss and 13-5 UNDER in the first-half following a blowout loss by 15+ points. The Pelicans scored only 46 points in the first half on Tuesday and the Suns used Deandre Ayton to slow down C.J. McCollum and New Orleans finished 5-for-25 from 3-point range. Three picks on this game: Play the Suns on the moneyline, take the full game to stay UNDER, and for my First Round GOY, take the first-half UNDER as well.

1.5 units on Phoenix -128 (moneyline) (risk 1.5 to return 2.67)
Result:
WIN
2 units on 1st ½ Total UNDER 104.5 -105 (risk 2 to return 3.9)
Result:
LOSS
1.5 units on Game Total UNDER 214.5 -105 (risk 1.5 to return 2.93)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Phoenix Suns img
28
20
34
33
115
New Orleans Pelicans
28
30
27
24
109
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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