Phoenix at Milwaukee

Phoenix has been invincible for the last 33 games going 31-2. Milwaukee has really struggled without Redd, Villanueva and Williams and have dropped eight of nine without Redd. So this looks like a Phoenix slam dunk right? Not so fast! Milwaukee has played seven of those last nine on the road and has only lost twice at home by 11+. Phoenix is in the middle of a five game road trip and this isn't a spot we expect them to expend a lot of energy. They have only won 5 of 20 on the road by more than this spread. They have only won 3 of 11 vs. a below .500 teams by this margin. Sure this is a mismatch, but NBA teams don't show up for the gimmies. Teams coming off of three or more losses in the NBA over the last three years and are an underdog of 9.5-points or more cover well over 60% of the time, a true indicator of the big team taking a breather, especially in the midst of a five game road trip. Milwaukee gets the money here.