This pick was released to clients on August 07, 2012 at 8:35PM ET.
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Phoenix at Los Angeles

May 4, 2006
img10:30 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

I love the OVER in this game. If the Phoenix Suns are to stay in this series and would like to take this series back to Phoenix for a game 7, they must win today. By the same token, if the Lakers are to win this series, it has to be today in front of their home crowd. They understand that the edge they acquired by winning the road game in Phoenix would be for nothing if this series indeed does go to a game 7 that would clearly favor the Suns at home. Both games that have been played in LA had the Lakers coming out on top. I think the Lakers win this game but I see Phoenix trying to get back to what go them this far - pushing the pace and scoring a lot. I beleive defense will take a step back this game as both teams will have a strong urgency and points will come in a flurry as this will be a traditional West Coast shootout. Steve Nash understands the strength of the Suns and it is run and up and down as they did in game 5 and regardless if they lose this series or not, he and Coach D'Antoni will make sure if they do lose, it is with their style of play. I look for the Lakers to keep up and match this intensity. Throw in a couple of situations that I have that indicate OVER here and we have a strong play. Visiting teams off a big blowout win facing a home team that scores a lot, in a game with a high total like this one, see the OVER at about a 68% clip. Also, home playoff teams off a poor defensive effort go OVER a lot in situations like this. OVER the 204.5 here.

3 units on Game Total OVER 204.5 -110 (risk 3 to return 5.73)
Result:
WIN
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