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Phoenix at Los Angeles

December 25, 2007
img5:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

The Lakers are maturing quickly as a team and with it, Kobe is beginning to trust his teammates more and more. Kobe has scored below his season average in six of the last ten games, yet the Lakers have now gone on an 8-2 run, and are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Andrew Bynum has now scored in double figures in six straight games, and is becoming more and more of a factor. Lamar Odom is averaging a double-double during this 10 game run as well. The Lakers can score, but you have to also be impressed with the commitment on the other end of the floor, as they are holding teams to an NBA 3rd best in FG percentage defense and are defending the 3's at an NBA's 2nd best. The Suns, when clicking, are an unstoppable unit. The best example of this can be made by looking at their 13-2 run awhile back. They were averaging 113.6 ppg during that stretch, and simply out-scored everyone. They have really cooled off however, and with no commitment on the defensive end, it has resulted in a 3-4 stretch over their last seven games. The Suns last seven games have shown them scoring just 104.9 ppg. Where the Suns have struggled is against the good offensive teams, or the good defensive teams. They are 3-3 SU and 0-5-1 ATS vs the top seven offensive teams. They are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS vs the top seven defensive teams. Combined, that's 4-6 SU while going 15-2 SU in all other games and 1-8-1 ATS (11-6 ATS vs all other teams). The Suns are being out-scored in these games by 3.9 ppg.  The Lakers are the 3rd best offensive team, playing well and at home. The Suns have yet to cover in this type of match-up, so we have a false favorite here.

3 units on Los Angeles +3 (-110) (risk 3 to return 3)
Result:
WIN
1
2
3
4
T
Phoenix Suns
26
36
27
26
115
Los Angeles Lakers
25
37
30
30
122
odds odds
 
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