Phoenix has blazed through the NBA with an offense that goes back in time about 35 years! How can you find an advantage with this statistically deviant team? Phoenix will score vs anyone. They average 111.3 ppg vs .500+ teams on the road and 110.3 ppg vs .500+ teams at home. They average 107.4 ppg vs sub .500 teams on the road, and the same 107.4 ppg at home.
But let's break things down a bit further here...
The .500+ teams average 110.8 ppg vs Phoenix @ Phoenix
The .500+ teams average 101.5 ppg vs Phoenix at home
The sub .500 teams average only 92.2 ppg at home
The sub .500 teams average only 94.4 ppg @ Phoenix
The key is playing Phoenix on the road vs a solid .500+ team. They will score, Phoenix always scores! This is an angle that is 7-0 this year to a line of 205 or less.
The disparagement of 500+ to sub 500 can't be negated!! There is nearly a 20 point difference!!! It is because these teams know if they play at Phoenix pace they will be totally blown out!!! When they do, they are!! The good teams can play that game, because they have multiple scoring options, but neither stops Phoenix!!!
If you measure this to a line of 205 or less it is 12-1 vs 500+ teams and 9-9 vs sub .500 teams.
THE AVERAGE SCORES:
PHOENIX vs .500+ @ home 110.3 - 101.5 = 211.8 ppg
PHOENIX vs sub .500 home 107.4 - 94.4 = 201.8 ppg
PHOENIX vs .500+ road 111.3 - 110.8 = 222.1 ppg!
PHOENIX vs sub .500 road 107.4 - 92.2 = 199.6 ppg!
Lots of math, I know. The takeaway is that when Phoenix is playing a good team on the road, there will be a lot of points scored. Let's throw in some more data here to let you know why I like this one so much...
Houston is well rested. January games in which the total is greater than or equal to 200 featuring a well-rested team (playing 6 or less games in 14 days) go have gone OVER 59-24 (71%) over the last 5 seasons. Also, January games in which the total is 200 to 209.5 featuring a team that is being called for 21 or less fouls/game on the season (i.e. Phoenix) have gone OVER the toal 62-23 (73%) since 1996. Phoenix is 44-24 OVER (65%) versus poor pressure defensive teams (those forcing <=14 turnovers/game) over the last 3 seasons. Phoenix is 7-0 OVER as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season.
You get the point. Bottom line is this game is going OVER. Four star pick on the OVER 204.5 tonight.