Phoenix at Houston

Yes, the Suns are on fire and lighting up the scoreboard (115.8 points per game over their last five). But, they are asking for trouble with their defense which is allowing an unacceptable 108 per game over the same stretch. If Yao Ming plays here, I like the Rockets. The Suns are due for a fall and we're getting excellent value here on the home team. Good shooting road teams (>46% on the season) facing an opponent off a game in which they hit 35% or less from the field are just 24-56 (30%) since 1996. Also, hot road teams that have won 15 or more of their last 20 games are just 41-75 (35%) over the last 5 seasons. Houston has the defense here to contain the Suns enough to win. Two stars on Houston. If Yao doesn't play, recommend laying off this game.