Phoenix at Denver

Denver isn't quite the great offensive team we saw last season, ranking #12 in the league in points scored. They haven't been as deep because of injuries, and scored 93 points the last game in a loss at home to OKC. Denver is on a 5-0 run UNDER the total, and the UNDER is 6-0 in the Nuggets' last six home games. Making matters worse for the offense is point guard Ty Lawson, who is ill with the stomach flu and might not play. Phoenix is in town ranked #13 in the NBA in field goal shooting defense allowing .447%, and are even better at preventing the three, ranked #5 in defending beyond the arc (.334%). The UNDER is 4-0 in the Suns' last four road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, so look for more defense than the oddsmakers expect. Go with the UNDER in this one.