Phoenix at Dallas

As we had last night, the home team needs a win to avoid going on the road down 0-2. Detroit won the game but couldn't quite get the cover. Despite that, I think the play is on Dallas here for a lot of the same reasons I liked the Pistons. Dallas will make adjustments to slow down the Suns. And, without Raja Bell, Phoenix's already pourous defense will become moreso. This is the guy who shut down Kobe and who was the key to slowing Dirk. It's a significant loss for the Suns. The Mavs are 14-5 ATS this season revenging a loss as a favorite this season. They are also 13-3 ATS overall off an upset loss and 8-1 ATS off a home game where both teams scored 100+ points. We got the OVER last game in easy fashion and this total has jumped 4 points. But, I still think it's the right play to go OVER again. Without Bell, and with their motivation, Dallas could easily score more than their game one 118 points. Phoenix tends to put back-to-back high-scoring games together. This season they are 14-5 OVER aftera game when in which 225+ points were scored. Dallas and the OVER.