Phoenix at Dallas

Dallas is in the classic situation of the NBA Playoffs, going home down 0-2 in the series and needing a win with Phoenix in a letdown spot after taking the first two games to hold onto home-court advantage. Dallas will play its best game, but it has to get more scoring from someone other than Luka Doncic, who poured in 35 points on 13-for-22 shooting on Wednesday. The Mavs also hope Chris Paul cools off a little after he hit six shots in a row in the fourth quarter to help seal it for the Suns. The Mavericks can't afford to come out slowly on the defensive end, and this game figures to be lower scoring than Games 1 and 2. These teams had gone UNDER in six of eight meetings before this series, and the UNDER is 16-7 in the last 23 meetings at Dallas. The Mavericks are 11-3 UNDER after losing by double digits, 48-20-1 UNDER at home, and 28-12-1 UNDER overall after an ATS loss dating to last season. Dallas is a tiny favorite here, and the value is on the home team to win. Take the Mavericks on the moneyline and also back the First-Half UNDER.