Phoenix at Dallas

Dallas fell asleep in the second half of last game as Phoenix cruised to a big victory. With the series tied up again, I think Dallas comes out motivated. If they are motivated, Phoenix can't keep up. This is a very large number which makes me hesitant to go very strong on the Mavs. But, if they are on their game, Phoenix will have trouble keeping it close. Dallas was 34-7 here during the regular season and had a winning record ATS. Phoenix shot a ridiculous 54.4% last game. They shot that well in game one, too and Dallas responded in game two with a seven point victory. I don't see Phoenix shooting that well again, especially on the road. Dallas meanwhile had trouble putting the rock in the hole last game. Nowitzki was 3-13 from the field and I expect a much difference performance from him here, too. I mean the guy had scored 20+ points before that in 41 straight games! This is more of a must-win for Dallas given the location of the game. Dallas is 13-4 ATS over the past two seasons coming off a road loss of 10+ points. Lean on Dallas to cover the big number.