Orlando at Houston

The Houston Rockets may want to lay claim to being among the elite in the Western Conference, but they have certainly not played like it since the first of the year. They are 37-17, but that record was built early in the season as they got out of the gate at 26-9. Things have been much less impressive since as they are 11-8 over their last 19 games, but the overall record looks better and the line here is reflective of that. This is a team that out-scored opponents by +12.8 points per game in December, but since then they out-scored opponents by +2.5 ppg in Jamuary. So far in February, they have been out-scored by -0.5 ppg. This is not so much a play on Orlando as it is against Houston, who has become highly over-valued. Grab the points and take Orlando.