Orlando at Golden State

The Magic have not been on top of their game of late. They won their last game, but didn't cover the spread. They have lost ATS in three of their last four. But, I expect them to play well here, partially as a result of their lackluster recent play. They got a scare from Sacramento on Wednesday as they were down heading into the fourth quarter, so I don't expect a letdown here against the Warriors. I like this matchup for Orlando too. Golden State has a good offense, but they also allow nearly 106 points per game. The Magic are 39-25 ATS the past two seasons vs. poor defensive teams (those allowing 99+ per game). They are also 42-28 ATS since last season vs. losing teams and that includes a 20-7 mark in the second-half of the season. Golden State really struggles vs. good 3-point shooting teams like Orlando (37% from beyond the arc and 9 per game). The Warriors are just 8-18 ATS this season vs. teams that hit 36%+ from long range and 11-21 ATS vs. teams that make six or more three-pointers per game. Orlando is 22-8 ATS vs. Pacific division opponents the past three seasons. Take them to win and cover here.