Orlando at Atlanta

The Hawks own a 2-1 lead in this series so it's pretty safe to say this is a must-win for the Magic. If there is no sense of urgency in this game for Orlando, there never will be. A loss puts them down 1-3 and all but out of the series. A win ties it up and they head back to Orlando with the momentum. While it's unclear which team wins this series, I like Orlando to get their "need" and pride to a win today. Atlanta hasn't been a good home team this season. Only the Knicks had fewer home wins of any playoffs team this season. Al Horford admitted that "on the road we're much more focused." The Hawks were just 17-25 ATS at home this season. Their defense has been very good but their offense still remains bad (89.6 per game over their last five). Under Stan Van Gundy, the Magic are 51-34 ATS in expected close games (-3 to +3) and 49-33 ATS as a road favorite of 6 or less and 44-26 ATS after a road loss. I expect to see a motivated Orlando team here and a win.