Oklahoma City at Washington

The Washington Wizards, despite being in prime draft position, have not utilized their picks to find improvement and once again may be the worst team in the league as indicated by their 1-12 record. That, however, does not have anything to do with pointspreads, in fact what it does is inflate numbers that become valued odds to cover. Teams posted as a home dog of ten or more points are a positive 148-124-6 ATS in the NBA back to 1990, but that turns much sweeter when they are off a loss, as it climbs to 128-86-6 ATS. Then, finally, when the opponent looks like an automatic blowout with a winning percentage of .750 or higher they zoom to 69-34-2 ATS. This is a pretty ugly team, in a pretty valuable situation.  Play on Washington.