Oklahoma City at San Antonio

San Antonio has been undervalued all season, winning 18 in a row and riding a 39-11-4 ATS run. The Spurs went 2-1 SU/ATS against Oklahoma City during the regular season and remember that Manu Ginobili didn't play in any of them. Oklahoma City had a deceptive sweep of the defending champion Mavericks in Round 1, but it was not cakewalk, winning 99-98, 102-99 at home, 95-79 and 103-97 in Dallas. The Thunder averaged just 35 points in the paint, a tally that would have ranked third-to-last in the regular season. Only twice against Dallas did the Thunder muster more than 26 paint points. The Thunder's defensive rebounding was suspect, too. Oklahoma City allowed just 10.5 offensive rebounds per game, 2.2 fewer than its second-to-last ranking in the regular season. The Mavs were the fourth worst offensive rebounding team in the league at 10.1 per game, but Dallas generated 11.3 second-chance points on average in the series. Against Dallas note that the Thunder's three-point defense was soft too: Dallas shot 37.1 percent from downtown despite going 12-of-38 (31.6 percent) from three-point range in the middle two games. That’s of concern as the Spurs are No. 1 in the NBA shooting .393% from beyond the arc. Then they topped the Lakers in five games but it was not easy, as L.A. blew two games and probably should have been up 3-1. The Thunder is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 against the NBA Southwest. Meanwhile San Antonio is rested, healthy and has home court (where they are 32-5). The Spurs are 22-4-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite and 33-16-2 ATS against the Western Conference. The Spurs win and the value with this one is on the money-line. Play the Spurs in Game One on the Money-Line (-240) to Win the Game. In addition, I see great defense in the first half. Both teams have had plenty of time to sit, so the offenses won't be in sync right out of the gate. And both defenses are underrated. Oklahoma City finished fourth in the NBA and tops in the West in field goal shooting defense, allowing .427% shooting by opponents. The UNDER is 5-2 in Thunder last seven games as an underdog. And the Spurs have turned on the defense in the playoffs allowing 42% shooting, holding Utah to 85 ppg (Utah was fourth in the NBA in scoring) and holding the Clippers to 91 ppg. They are on a 6-2-1 run UNDER the total. Play the Spurs on the moneyline and First Half UNDER the Total.