Oklahoma City at Miami

After taking Game 1 in their series vs. the Miami Heat, the Oklahoma City Thunder have lost the last three and face elimination tonight on the road. The Thunder came out all business in Game 4, taking a commanding 17-point lead early, but it all vanished in a 5 minute period, and it seemed to take the fight out of them. The Heat have survived a poor shooting night in Game 3 where they shot less than 38% but still won. They survived 43 points from Russell Westbrook in Game 4 and still won. Although the oddsmakers are calling this one just about even, since game one this series has been anything but. The Thunder offense which scored 100+ in 8-of-9 games and no less than 98 in any of them, have been stymied by the Heat’s defense which has held them to 93 points per game over the last three - all losses. Defense has been the difference, and unfortunately that is not the Thunder's calling card. The Thunder has given up 100+ in seven of their last 11 playoffs games. Miami has allowed Durant and Westbrook to do their thing as each has had a good series, but what they have done is shut down everyone else. Game 4 was the perfect example of that as the Thunder's dynamic duo of Durant and Westbrook scored all the team's points in the last 15 minutes, while everyone else stood around and watched. The rest of the cast shot 11-31 for the game, which was decisive. The fact is that outside of Westbrook and Durant, the rest of the Oklahoma City team is just 37-102 in the last three games at under 37%. The Heat is now 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after touching the century mark in their previous game, and have covered eight of their last nine vs. a team over .600. Last year ended in disappointment, fueling the desire to make it right this year. Play on the Heat. Oklahoma City has to do a better job with their defensive initiative early in this game, as it is the area with which they have struggled. The first two games here have failed to top the first half total posted here, and with so much on the line for the Thunder they will have their defensive hats on early - something the Heat has done all series. The Thunder have yet to reach 50 points in the first half while OKC has kept the Heat under 50 in each of the last two. As a small home favorite (favored by 3 or less), the Heat are 15-5 UNDER in the first half the past couple of seasons. They are also 16-5 UNDER in the first-half at home over that span when the total is set between 96 and 98, as it is here. OKC is a perfect 7-0 UNDER in the first-half in their last seven road games vs. good shooting teams like the Heat (teams hitting 46%+ from the field). Take the first half UNDER in this one.