Oklahoma City at Miami

So who has been the better team in this series? Let's face it: Miami looked like the better team in six of the eight quarters played in Oklahoma City. They went on to win Game 3 at home with great defense as the young Thunder imploded from the free throw line and looked lost at crunch time. Miami is a better defensive team (No. 7 in the NBA in scoring offense, No. 4 in scoring defense during the regular season) allowing 89 points per game in the postseason (ranked No. 4) while Oklahoma City is ranked No. 10 out of 16 teams in the playoffs allowing 95.6 points per game. Miami has held Oklahoma City to 43% in each of the last two games. The Thunder is 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a spread loss and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of +0.5 +4.5. LeBron James has been the primary defender on Kevin Durant in the fourth quarter the last two games - a great coaching move and OKC has had no answer for it yet. Just as important, on offense Miami has been attacking the glass the last two games, getting short shots and fouls, while the Thunder have been more finesse and perimeter oriented. The Heat's defense is hounding James Harden, making things tough by blowing up ball screens and aggressively attacking Harden in the pick-and-roll. Harden entered this championship series averaging 17.6 points in the postseason. He had connected on 45.2% of his field-goal attempts. Against the Heat, Harden has averaged 11.7 points on 40.7% shooting. He has registered as many fouls (11) as he has assists. Miami's small lineup is causing Harden most of his problems. Because the Heat refuses to play a true center, Miami has a quartet of athletic wing players and agile big men in Battier, James, Bosh and Udonis Haslem to aggressively meet Harden beyond the arc on ball screens. They're funneling Harden sideways and forcing him to pass off instead of allowing him to attack with a head of steam. Getting Chris Bosh back healthy and now in the starting lineup has been huge for Miami, so they are confident, healthy and clicking. They are also experienced, unlike Oklahoma City. The Heat is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games and 19-8 ATS in their last 27 playoff games as a favorite. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, which means the favorite is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Don't look for that to change and grab the better home team again at this short price. Play the Miami Heat in Game 4. In addition, I see a defensive game - particularly in the first half. So much is at stake in this one that both sides will bring their best defense. Oklahoma City finished the regular season allowing 42% shooting by opponents - fourth best in the NBA and tops in the West. The UNDER is 20-7-1 in the Thunder’s last 28 against the Eastern Conference, while Miami is 26-11 UNDER the total in their last 37 home games. Miami has held OKC to 15 and 20 first quarter points the last two games and there will be ferocious defense to start this game by both squads. Play on Miami and take the first half UNDER.