Oklahoma City is No. 1 in points allowed (95.3 per game) in the playoffs and in field goal shooting allowed (40.8%). During the regular season, they were 11th in points given up third in shooting allowed. OKC is 26-13 UNDER the total on the road revenging a loss to an opponent. They used a strong home-court advantage (33-8) to get the No. 1 seed in the West but were 24-17 straight up away from home. The Mavericks are on an 18-8 run UNDER the total. Dallas is six in points surrendered (103.6 per game) in the postseason and fourth in shooting allowed (44.1%) out of 16 teams. Dallas is 30-20 UNDER the total versus winning teams and 40-26 UNDER against teams that shoot 46%+ from the field. The Mavericks won two of three at home in the last series, including a Game 3 victory over the Clippers, 101-90, that sailed UNDER by 22 points. The Mavs are 32-21 UNDER after a victory, plus 38-23 UNDER at home after a spread cover. The wagering value is on the home team to win a defensive battle. Play Dallas on the moneyline and Oklahoma City/Dallas UNDER the total.
This pick was released to clients on May 11, 2024 at 11:18AM ET.
Oklahoma City at Dallas
May 11, 2024
1.5 units on Dallas -137 (moneyline) (risk 1.5 to return 2.59)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 218 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
WIN
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