New York at Minnesota

Not many would have projected this New York Knicks team would be an ugly 21-40 at this stage of the season - especially after what they accomplished a year ago. The same can also be said about Minnesota, who had the injury excuse, for a team that was supposed to have enough young talent to contend. Minnesota had a strong road trip winning four of five, and may catch their breath as they arrive home to face a team that does not appear to be much of a threat, as the Knicks have lost seven straight games. Minnesota has had a lot of trouble when playing as a home favorite after a win where they are a disturbing 26-51-3 ATS. They have been just 43-37 in that spot straight-up to an average -5.3 point favorite. That also goes down to 13-30 ATS to a line of -5.5 or more, while their straight-up record stands at just 24-19 at -5.5 or more. Minnesota is just 11-16 straight-up this season vs. teams like New York that can hit the long ball (teams making over 35% from beyond the arc). The Wolves are also just 7-16 straight-up the past two seasons when coming off a road win. Under Rick Adelman, they are 11-25 straight-up in that situation. And, this season they are 10-16 straight-up after scoring 100+ in back-to-back games. As a result, there is a lot of value on the New York side of the line. Play on New York plus the points, and also play the Kincks on the moneyline as they are in a plus-valued spot at long odds.